Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Efficient Cellular Release of Rift Valley Fever Virus Requires Genomic RNA

The Rift Valley fever virus is responsible for periodic, explosive epizootics throughout sub-Saharan Africa. The development of therapeutics targeting this virus is difficult due to a limited understanding of the viral replicative cycle. Utilizing a virus-like particle system, we have established roles for each of the viral structural components in assembly, release, and virus infectivity. The envelope glycoprotein, Gn, was discovered to be necessary and sufficient for packaging of the genome, nucleocapsid protein and the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase into virus particles. Additionally, packaging of the genome was found to be necessary for the efficient release of particles, revealing a novel mechanism for the efficient generation of infectious virus. Our results identify possible conserved targets for development of anti-phlebovirus therapies

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Postepidemic Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus Transmission in Northeastern Kenya: A Village Cohort Study

RVFV infection causes significant disease in both human and animal populations, resulting in significant agricultural, economic and public health consequences. We conducted a cohort study on residents of a high-risk area to measure human anti-RVFV seroprevalence, to identify risk factors, and to estimate the durability of prior RVFV immunity. One hundred two individuals tested for RVFV exposure before the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak were restudied to determine interval anti-RVFV seroconversion and persistence of humoral immunity since 2006. Ninety-two additional subjects were enrolled from randomly selected households to help identify risk factors for current seropositivity. Seroprevalence in the region was high (23%). 1/85 at-risk individuals restudied in the follow-up cohort had seroconverted since early 2006. 29% of newly tested individuals were seropositive. After adjustment in multivariable logistic models, age, village, and drinking raw milk were significantly associated with RVFV seropositivity. Visual impairment (defined as ≤20/80) was much more likely in the RVFV-seropositive group. Among those with previous exposure, RVFV titers remained at protective levels (>1∶40) for more than 3 years. This study highlights the high seroprevalence among Northeastern Kenyans and the ongoing surge in seroprevalence with each RVF outbreak

Broad Spectrum Antiviral Activity of Favipiravir (T-705): Protection from Highly Lethal Inhalational Rift Valley Fever

Background:Development of antiviral drugs that have broad-spectrum activity against a number of viral infections would be of significant benefit. Due to the evolution of resistance to currently licensed antiviral drugs, development of novel anti-influenza drugs is in progress, including Favipiravir (T-705), which is currently in human clinical trials. T-705 displays broad-spectrum in vitro activity against a number of viruses, including Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV). RVF is an important neglected tropical disease that causes human, agricultural, and economic losses in endemic regions. RVF has the capacity to emerge in new locations and also presents a potential bioterrorism threat. In the current study, the in vivo efficacy of T-705 was evaluated in Wistar-Furth rats infected with the virulent ZH501 strain of RVFV by the aerosol route.Methodology/Principal Findings:Wistar-Furth rats are highly susceptible to a rapidly lethal disease after parenteral or inhalational exposure to the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. In the current study, two experiments were performed: a dose-determination study and a delayed-treatment study. In both experiments, all untreated control rats succumbed to disease. Out of 72 total rats infected with RVFV and treated with T-705, only 6 succumbed to disease. The remaining 66 rats (92%) survived lethal infection with no significant weight loss or fever. The 6 treated rats that succumbed survived significantly longer before succumbing to encephalitic disease.Conclusions/Significance:Currently, there are no licensed antiviral drugs for treating RVF. Here, T-705 showed remarkable efficacy in a highly lethal rat model of Rift Valley Fever, even when given up to 48 hours post-infection. This is the first study to show protection of rats infected with the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. Our data suggest that T-705 has potential to be a broad-spectrum antiviral drug. © 2014 Caroline et al

Avoiding moving obstacles

To successfully move our hand to a target, we must consider how to get there without hitting surrounding objects. In a dynamic environment this involves being able to respond quickly when our relationship with surrounding objects changes. People adjust their hand movements with a latency of about 120 ms when the visually perceived position of their hand or of the target suddenly changes. It is not known whether people can react as quickly when the position of an obstacle changes. Here we show that quick responses of the hand to changes in obstacle position are possible, but that these responses are direct reactions to the motion in the surrounding. True adjustments to the changed position of the obstacle appeared at much longer latencies (about 200 ms). This is even so when the possible change is predictable. Apparently, our brain uses certain information exceptionally quickly for guiding our movements, at the expense of not always responding adequately. For reaching a target that changes position, one must at some time move in the same direction as the target did. For avoiding obstacles that change position, moving in the same direction as the obstacle is not always an adequate response, not only because it may be easier to avoid the obstacle by moving the other way, but also because one wants to hit the target after passing the obstacle. Perhaps subjects nevertheless quickly respond in the direction of motion because this helps avoid collisions when pressed for time. © 2008 Springer-Verlag

Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa

Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women

Host Alternation Is Necessary to Maintain the Genome Stability of Rift Valley Fever Virus

Arthropod-borne viruses are transmitted among vertebrate hosts by insect vectors. Unusually, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can also be transmitted by direct contacts of animals/humans with infectious tissues. What are the molecular mechanisms and evolutionary events leading to adopt one mode of transmission rather than the other? Viral replication is implied to be different in a vertebrate host and an invertebrate host. The alternating host cycle tends to limit virus evolution by adopting a compromise fitness level for replication in both hosts. To test this hypothesis, we used a cell culture model system to study the evolution of RVFV. We found that freeing RVFV from alternating replication in mammalian and mosquito cells led to large deletions in the NSs gene carrying the virulence factor. Resulting NSs-truncated viruses were able to protect mice from a challenge with a virulent RVFV. Thus, in nature, virulence is likely maintained by continuous alternating passages between vertebrates and insects. Thereby, depending on the mode of transmission adopted, the evolution of RVFV will be of major importance to predict the outcome of outbreaks